- USDTHB: moving in the range 37.01-37.05 this morning supportive level at 36.95 resistance level at 37.20
· SET Index: 1,359.9 (-0.32%), 26 Apr 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 5,100.0 (+1.02%), 26 Apr 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.77 (+2.21 bps), 26 Apr 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.67 (-3.00 bps), 26 Apr 2024
- US March’s inflation increases moderately
- Eurozone inflation expectation declined further
- BOJ leaves policy unchanged despite the currency continued weakness
- Dollar drifts lower amid PCE data released
US March’s inflation increases moderately
The US Commerce Department reported the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) included food and energy, gauge increased 2.7%yoy, compared with the 2.6%yoy estimate. While, PCE excluding food and energy increased 2.8%yoy in March, the same as in the month earlier. On monthly basis, both measures increased 0.3%, as expected and equaling the increase from February. Goods prices edged up 0.1% as increases in the costs of gasoline, clothing and footwear were partially offset by a decline in prices of motor vehicles and parts. Services prices rose 0.4%, quickening from February's 0.3% advance. They were boosted by a 0.5% increase in the cost of housing and utilities, which include rents. Rents have remained sticky even as the supply of apartments has increased and independent measures showed a decline in rent demands.
Eurozone inflation expectation declined further
The ECB consumer expectations survey results showed the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months decreased further, for the sixth consecutive month, to 5.0%, from 5.5% in February. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also edged down, to 3.0% from 3.1%. It was at their lowest level since December 2021. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead remained unchanged at 2.5% for the fourth consecutive month. Inflation expectations at the one-year and three-year horizons remained well below the perceived past inflation rate. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months edged down and is now at its lowest level since the start of Russia’s unjustified war against Ukraine in February 2022.
BOJ leaves policy unchanged despite the currency continued weakness
According to the Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) on 26 April, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its monetary policy unchanged, maintaining its dovish stance for the time being. While the BOJ was widely expected to keep the short-term interest rate target at 0% to 0.1%. Regarding purchases of Japanese government bonds, CP, and corporate bonds, the Bank will conduct the purchases in accordance with the decisions made at the March 2024 MPM. In the quarterly outlook, the board projected core consumer inflation to hit 2.8% in the year that began in April, before slowing to 1.9% in fiscal 2025 and 2026. However, BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda said the central bank’s policy board members generally believe that the impact of the weak yen on underlying inflation is not concern at this point, so there’s no need for the central bank to act. However, the possibility that such a risk could occur, so we will carefully monitor the situation.
Dollar drifts lower amid PCE data released
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.77, +2.21 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.75, +2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.67, -3.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.92 Moving in a range of 37.01-37.05 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.95-37.20 today. The U.S. dollar drifted lower on Friday, ahead of the release of key U.S. inflation data, which could drive sentiment with the Federal Reserve meeting this week (Apr30-May1). The Dollar Index traded 0.1% lower at 105.395, having climbed to 106.00 on Thursday. While EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.0746 as well as GBP/USD rose 0.2% to 1.2532, benefiting from the dollar’s weaker tone. On the other hand, YEN/USD past 158 yen in a quickening sell-off after the BOJ left interest rates unchanged.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
