- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.99-37.06 this morning supportive level at 36.90 resistance level at 37.10
· SET Index: 1,368.0 (+0.44%), 30 Apr 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 5,018.4 (-0.34%), 1 May 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.78 (+1.46 bps), 30 Apr 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.63 (-6.00 bps), 1 May 2024
- Fed holds rates steady, citing no role in rate-move timing
- US ADP non-farm employment above market expectation
- UK manufacturing slips back into contraction as decline in output and new orders
- Dollar and stock decline after Fed left interest rates unchanged
Fed holds rates steady, citing no role in rate-move timing
The FOMC kept rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% for a sixth straight meeting. The Fed announced that it will slow its pace of quantitative tightening beginning June 1, lowering the cap on the amount of Treasury securities rolling off the balance sheet by more than half, to $25 billion each month from $60 billion. Officials maintained the pace of runoff for mortgage-backed securities at a maximum of $35 billion a month. The FOMC is still aiming for a soft landing. Monetary policy is restrictive now and over time sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to target. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stressed that there is no signal here on policy and the move to slow the pace of reducing its balance sheet is not being done to provide accommodation to the economy or be less restrictive.
US ADP non-farm employment above market expectation
According to data released by Automatic Data Processing (ADP), private sector employment in the US increased by 192k jobs, more than market consensus of 175k, but below March's increase of 208K jobs (revised from 184K). The average pace of hiring has accelerated over the last three months after slowing late last year, almost matching gains made in the first half of 2023. Hiring was broad-based in April. Only the information sector e.g., telecommunications, media, and information technology showed weakness, posting job losses and the smallest pace of pay gains since August 2021.
UK manufacturing slips back into contraction as decline in output and new orders
The UK S&P Global UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.1 in April, down from March's 20-month high of 50.3. It showed renewed signs of weakness at the start of the second quarter. April saw output and new orders slip back into contraction territory following short-lived upturns in March, as uncertain market conditions, client destocking and supply-chain disruption (mainly relating to the Red Sea crisis) stymied opportunities for sustained expansion. Four of the five PMI constituents (output, new orders, employment, and stocks of purchases) registered contractions. Longer supplier delivery times was the only variable to buck the negative trend on the PMI. However, this was largely a 'false positive', largely reflecting disruptions caused by the Red Sea crisis as opposed to stronger conditions driving up demand for raw materials (input buying activity fell during the latest survey month).
Dollar and stock decline after Fed left interest rates unchanged
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.78, +1.46 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.77, +2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.63, -6.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 37.07 Moving in a range of 36.99-37.06 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.90-37.10 today. The Dollar index fell 0.19% at 106.12, following the Fed statement, after earlier reaching 106.49, the highest since April 16, with the euro up 0.23% at $1.0689. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 5.4 bps to 4.63%, from 4.684% late on Tuesday, and the 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 8.6 bps to 4.9602%, from 5.046%. However, global markets were somewhat subdued, with traders in many countries off for May Day or International Workers' Day.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
